IS THE VIEW REALLY THAT GLOOMY? Chris Byrnes – ByrnesMedia One could be forgiven for leaving the recent CAB in Ottawa feeling rather down about the future of radio. I found myself questioning the wisdom of spending a couple of thousand dollars for flights, hotel, meals and conference fees to attend a series of sessions where most of the experts were talking about the pending demise of radio. I wonder about the value of assembling all these experts who predict the demise of the very industry that keeps the CAB afloat. I have to think that the staff members responsible for deciding on the topics and the speakers do not really believe that radio and television are facing such tough times or they would be dusting off their resumes and looking for another job.
Fortunately, I met up with lots of broadcasting friends outside of the sessions who still feel pretty good about the business. Most have lived through challenging times before and probably cannot even remember back to “the good old days” when the money flowed in the door with little effort or hard work. If some of the futurists are right, then radio may well face some challenges ahead from new technology. The smart operators, though, will adapt and find solutions to these challenges and probably ten years from now we’ll all be at another CAB listening to more tales of woe about the impending demise of radio as we know it.
In contrast, I spent the weekend prior to the CAB as a guest of Rotary International and the United Nations in New York. Each year they invite a few thousand people from all over the world to gather at the impressive UN building overlooking the Hudson River to talk about and work on solving some of the key world issues such as hunger, literacy and disease. It was an enlightening way to spend my 50th birthday and while my contribution was mainly to listen and observe, I felt very privileged to be amongst people so committed to making the world a better place. The positive feeling coming from those meetings was far different than what was to come out of the CAB panels a few days later. But rather than complain about the CAB I thought it would be appropriate to end 2007 by talking about some of the good things that I see happening in our business.
Advertising Revenues Are Up: Most of the radio clients we are privileged to work with tell us that advertising revenues are up slightly from last year. The CRTC financial data supports this and shows a 6% increase from 2005 to 2006 for all commercial radio revenue across Canada. Granted, there were more stations on the air in 2006 than 2005 but even taking this into account the figures show positive growth. A quick look at the publicly traded radio company’s annual reports also shows some positive trends.
Radio Advertising Works: The Ad Lab is doing some very good work demonstrating the power of radio and the value it offers advertisers. There is some interesting data that shows that radio produces a better return on investment than television. Their most recent study reveals that radio consumers are more receptive to radio advertising because we do a better job of engaging the consumer on an emotional level. It’s a fascinating study and you can download it and other studies at www.radioadlab.org. We hear lots of success stories from stations across Canada, and provided the message is right and is heard with enough frequency to the right target audience, the client can expect to see more potential customers walking through their door.
More Radio Stations Are Signing On Than Ever Before: In 2006, 34 new radio stations signed on the air based on data from the CRTC website. As of today, there are just under 600 commercial radio stations operating in Canada. That is still low by world standards, based on stations per head of population, which suggests there is still more room for radio licenses to be issued. Right now there are calls for licences in Vancouver, Edmonton, Red Deer and Drumheller, and I suspect 2008 will see more calls for licenses than ever before.
New Radio Station Applications Are Up: It used to be that only the big players had the resources to respond to calls for new FM licenses issued by the CRTC. But that has now changed, in part because the CRTC has made it a less daunting process and perhaps because the CRTC seem open to giving the smaller, more independent applicants an opportunity. While consolidation continues and the large companies get larger, there are still a few standalone operators who are making a go of it. This has resulted in a number of new entrants applying for licenses in 2007. For example, in Kelowna, ten of the eleven applications came from smaller broadcast companies. In Ottawa, the trend is similar with 9 of the 11 applications coming from smaller or new applicants. Not surprisingly there are 16 companies who have filed applications in the hope of being successful in Vancouver. In fact, there are more applications for new radio licenses than ever before in markets as large as Vancouver and as small as Owen Sound. Cleary there are still people who feel radio has a future or they would not be going through the application and hearing process and then should they be granted a license, dealing with the prospect of huge start-up losses and 7 years of large CTD payments.
There Are Lots of Radio Jobs Available: The average salary in 2006 was $59,181 and with all the new stations coming to air, opportunities abound for qualified, hard working broadcasters who are prepared to move. We have recently assisted three clients to staff new operations and, frankly, it was a challenge to fill some of the positions. I recently spoke to first and second year broadcast students at Fanshawe College in London and I was impressed by the calibre of students and the questions they asked. Every generation is better educated than the previous one and if these students are anything to go by, some of these graduates may give us all a run for our money!
People Want to Move to Canada to Work in Radio: I have received calls from England, New Zealand and Australia over the past few weeks from top notch, qualified broadcasters wanting to make the move to North America. It’s not that radio is depressed in those countries; they, perhaps like me, felt there were more opportunities to create great radio in North America where there is a larger population, more consumer choice, and perhaps a better standard of living. If you’re looking for some new blood and fresh ideas give me a call and I’ll be happy to connect you with these people.
Conclusion: I still wake up every day excited by the opportunity to work in radio for one more day. From where I sit, the view is not as depressing as was depicted at the CAB. Yes there are challenges ahead especially with some of the new technology that is around the corner. I see 2008 being the year that the radio receiver will find its way onto the iPod as a built-in device which will mean more ears tuned to radio once again. If we stick to the basics of doing all we can to create compelling, relevant, local radio, and focus on super serving our listeners and clients, then perhaps we can all afford the fees to go back to another CAB. |