THE END OF RADIO? Greg Diamond & Gord Marratto Chicken Little thinks he has it bad. People have been trying to drop the sky on terrestrial (commercial) radio since Marconi left Newfoundland. Now, the good ol’ tax-supported folks at the CBC are joining in on the interment. You might have seen their “eulogy” production, “The End of Radio”, which had its second airing on Newsworld Aug 21 – 23. Just in case you missed it, follow this link: http://www.cbc.ca/theend/media/endofradio.wvx
How could it be that we find our industry in the most solid financial shape in recent memory? Why is it that people employed in our industry have more opportunity to succeed than they have in decades?
Unless I’m missing something, it doesn’t sound as though we’ll all be kicking stones in the parking lot anytime soon.
The Corporation’s program tells us that among the likely beneficiaries of radio’s demise is Internet Radio. One of its most successful products is SOMA FM which, “offers listeners a choice of seven unique radio stations.“ They go on to say, “Unlike traditional radio, internet radio caters to niche audiences and offers a much larger weekly playlist of over one thousands songs. "One of the things people say when they listen to us is, 'I never knew music like that existed.'" And better yet, there's no advertising because Soma FM is supported by listener donations.”
To this first suggestion I pose this question: Does anyone believe that these “seven unique” stations would each appeal to more than a handful of people across the nation? When you begin to narrow niches, you become more subjective and the finished product represents the personal preference of the music director or compiler. To find more than a few who would agree to these sharply defined selections would be unlikely. The reason that terrestrial radio continues to be so well listened to is because it cuts a wide swath through its musical format of proven songs to include enough variety to be at least moderately appealing to its target demographic. By playing “over one thousand songs” from a specific genre, these amateurish internet stations are playing music their intended audience has never heard before. As much as that might appeal to aficionados, the average radio listener is much more comfortable listening to familiar music.
As far as the dreaded “advertising” is concerned, endless radio research tells us that local listeners actually like to hear about local news, sports, weather, traffic and local retail advertising.
It comes down to what is perceived as “sexy” in the largely uninformed eyes of our media competitors - television, print, Internet, etc. - and terrestrial radio is considered to be old news given its relative technological stability over the course of many years. By the way, I find it interesting that people in print and TV, continue to view radio as such, given the enormous challenges they both face like broad fragmentation, spiraling operating costs, entrenched and largely inert workforces, etc. These challenges make our current situation look positively rosy by comparison.
To be fair, though, we are not without our own highly-publicized challenges. Internet and satellite radio have been receiving the lion’s share of “buzz” for a few years, but it is in these two media where we can actually dispel the rumours of the end of radio.
As a self-professed “geek” (I sometimes wear a pocket-protector) I admit to being fascinated by new technology. Streaming and sat audio are two areas that I have explored and sampled extensively. I enjoy both, but realize fully their inherent drawbacks.
Neither Internet nor satellite radio is capable of cementing their product to a given market. This is something I think we all realize and a topic I have commented on regularly. It bears repeating, however, since it is the single greatest advantage we possess as we compete with these two media and those that have yet to be fully developed. Wi-Fi and Wi-Max, if programmed properly, could potentially impinge on terrestrial’s hold in this area. However, the technology is still quite a ways off from being sufficiently widespread to make a noticeable impact. Further, those creating the product have generally ignored specific geographic locations in favour of the “World-Wide” aspect of the web.
The CBC program suggests that Satellite Radio will spell the end of terrestrial radio. “Satellite radio offers one hundred channels of digital quality music, sports, entertainment, news and information that's completely mobile. You can listen to it in your home, your car or at the park.” I don’t need to remind anyone that it also costs $200. - $400. for the hardware and $13.00/mo (soon to be $15.00) for the service. Once again, that gets you 100 very nichy channels of programming, any one of which is too nichy for the average listener. That’s why the service is not going over as well as all the great prognosticators envisioned. Share prices have dropped through the floor and subscriber estimates are being drastically underachieved….even considering that the industry is still on its honeymoon. Wait until subscribers get through their premium-assisted first year and let’s see how many renew. I can’t believe more than 5 people in North America would really want to listen to a golf match, yet Sirius advertises that on television…..what a waste!
“The End of Radio” is yet another clear example of how incorrect some people’s views are toward what we do every day – broadcast, with the emphasis on “broad”.
The gloom & doom CBC program also lists websites like, My Space, Rhapsody, Napster and Yahoo Music as part of the new revolution of diversions from radio. These websites appeal to a very young demographic, 12 – 18. The habits of this group have always been radically different from older age groups. Try to remember if you were interested in Social Studies when you were a teen. Did you read the daily newspaper? Did you watch the dinner hour national or local news? I’m sure you flipped over to watch 20/20, 60 Minutes and the CTV news. Most young people have no real responsibilities so they don’t care about what might influence their lives. When they reach their 20’s, perhaps get married or take on a mortgage and other responsibilities, they’ll need to know about interest rates, stock prices and the oil market. When they have jobs, they will need to know about the weather forecast and traffic conditions. Then, they will turn from their playthings like I-pods, mp3’s and Internet radio to more mainstream media. Check the most recent national summaries of BBM. Audiences after age 25 are going up, not down as this CBC presentation suggests.
In the world of the naysayers, everyone is hyper-connected to the medium and listens in a manner that is far more engaged than the vast majority of the population… I repeat, VAST majority! It’s a gravely erroneous assumption to think everyone is craving something new, or something different. The omen-mongers would have us believe that everyone wants something other than what terrestrial radio provides daily but the truth is that sluggish growth in Internet tuning (despite accounts to the contrary) and extremely disappointing satellite acceptance is causing XM and Sirius to start talking about a merger before they even get to the ¼ mile pole.
By thinking the general public will gravitate towards multiple channels of razor-thin niche programming is really no different than saying “57 Channels and Nothing On.” The appeal is simply not wide enough to elicit considerable adoption by the vast majority.
Terrestrial radio has seen a need to address that portion of the majority that desires greater “perceived variety” with the Jacks and Bobs filling the niche. Terrestrial has also serviced for many years that part of the majority who wish for an elevated engagement of the media with News/Talk stations performing well in most markets. In short, traditional radio is already effectively covering all the bases for that vast majority of the listening public.
The assumption that the average listener thinks past whether they simply “like the record or not” shows a general lack of understanding and no small measure of wishful thinking. Yes, some people do wish for micro-niche formats and yes, some people do want to hear Howard Stern and major league football or baseball. There are also those that are interested in what someone streams from his basement or what’s programmed on the larger, multi-channel Internet sites, but the fact remains, the sheer number of these people is still exceptionally small in contrast to the weekly circulation of the terrestrial radio industry.
For almost eight decades, our industry has done a very good job of adapting to an ever-changing landscape. If we continue to respond intelligently as we have in the past, we will succeed in meeting the new challenges before us.
So, when one of your prospects suggests that radio is doomed, pull out these arguments and tell him that the day most people no longer find a basic core of proven music more generally acceptable than the “also-ran” album cuts, his prediction might indeed come true.
The End of Radio? Not for a while yet, friend. |