THE PEOPLE METER DEBATE Chris Byrnes There is a lot of talk south of the border about People Meters and the recent Arbitron results for radio in the Philadelphia market. At this point the debate is focusing on costs, timing, and methodology as radio is now having second thoughts as to whether this is the best "pond to be swimming in". Yet most experts agree PPM is a more accurate system of measurement than the current diary method where less than 50% of people who agree to take part in a survey actually complete and return their diary. What is emerging from PPM is some of the interesting consumer/listener behavior data that have been "hidden" in the diary, but reflect what listeners actually do and the way they use radio. Understanding these concepts could also increase your likelihood for success in the "diary" game.
What differences should we expect with PPM measurement?
People Meter data confirms that P1's contribute the vast majority of the time to the stations listening, something we've been telling our client radio stations for years. However these are not 100+ quarter-hour P1's. I'm sure you've seen this in ballots if you've ever done a diary review. In the diary system these "people with no lives" ballots cannot be controlled. They are with you one book and gone the next. The more effective strategy is to focus on the real P1's, the average, every-day people using radio like a friend. These are the life-blood of a station. PPM confirms that P1 cume is still your station's most important group of listeners. And, converting your P2+ audience to P1's is the single-most relevant ratings building strategy. Moreover, stations employing database building strategies and multi-contact communications programs will have a much higher chance of having their ratings show stronger and more stable in the diary methodology. We can help you do this with Listener Tracker software designed especially for radio so you can quickly build a database of your current and potential listeners and then communicate with them via personalized e-mail and newsletters.
The positives are also clear for advertisers and agencies alike. The PPM captures cross media listening and viewing. These positives also flow through to radio - imagine being able to track when your TV commercials are placed and what percentage of existing and potential listeners saw your TV commercials, and even further how many of these people then tuned into your station and at what time. In tests conducted in Manchester, England, a station there has already been able to calculate the percentage of new listeners that their television campaign brought to their radio station.
PPM numbers suggest that cume is up significantly for radio. PPM showed an average daily cumulative audience of 75.9% vs. 66.0% from the diary. The PPM is picking up increased listening occasions, as well as the number of stations PPM carriers, your listeners, are tuned to. It's something we programmers have suspected and experienced for some time in "real life," but had no great evidence to back up our anecdotal evidence. PPM listeners tuned in 4.4 times a day to radio as opposed to 3 occasions by diary keepers. The number of stations PPM carriers listened to is close to twice as many as diary keepers.
Implication: The great thing is that it positively impacts all radio stations, almost regardless of format. As an industry we've got to be happy. As programmers it means we're now measuring all listening occasions to our station regardless of how much time listeners spend with us. It's most likely been happening all along, it's just that the diary has not been able to measure it.
Marketing Directors and Program Directors will need to spend more time together on working out how to attract even more cume to the station. If people are tuning around the dial, your goal will be to have them stop down at your station. That's the Marketing Director's objective pure and simple. Then, the Program Director's role takes over - holding them! If your listeners are returning to radio 4.4 times a day, you have to market to them to remind them to return to your station. Radio is very much driven by mood - new ways of marketing may consider hitting this responsive chord; e.g.; "When you need to relax, tune to 97.3 EZ Rock… When you need to know how the traffic's going, tune to 1010 CFRB." Showing "usage" of your station will likely be the theme to use in your external marketing.
Current programming theory about the value of the first and third Quarter Hours will be rendered obsolete. The old thought of front loading a commercial cluster may mean nothing. The idea of loading the first and third Quarter Hours with all of the big "Power" songs will be useless. The People Meter will much more accurately show the real use of radio. This means that programmers must work diligently at dotting the I's and crossing the T's. It increases the necessity for everything to sound good and be as best as can be. Impact on music testing - because minute-by-minute data is being collected you'll be able to compare and contrast the impact of certain music/songs/news bulletins/talk issues on your station. Furthermore, you'll be able to plot where your listeners go when they switch out. It's more than standard ebb and flow. You'll identify the key hot buttons that drive listeners to your station as well. Implication - play people's favourite songs frequently.
Measurement can be continuous 365 days a year, 24 hours a day - no rest for the wicked. Implication - you'll be on your toes 52 weeks a year, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. Remember what we're now measuring is how an individual person divides up their available time they can commit to being entertained or informed (PPM measures radio and TV). Even though measurement is continuous reports could be the same as the current system, or more often depending on radio's needs. Television in Canada has continuous reporting now in metered markets, but radio does not have to do the same.
PPMs are carried by people who are part of a panel, much the same way TV set top meter respondents are recruited - unlike the diary which is a new sample each week. This means that the "numbers" should be more stable under PPM, and more importantly any measured shifts in listening over time are "real." In Canada, BBM is also watching events in the USA and around the world very carefully, and are making plans for a television roll out and their own radio test. The first measurements using PPM will be for television and ultimately will replace the current BBM "Picture Matching" system which uses set based meters. The feeling is that PPM will provide more accurate data than the current system used to measure TV viewing in Canada. This will be rolled out in Montreal and Quebec and data should be flowing from PPM meters in early 2003. This will allow a radio test in Canada using PPM in 2004 in conjunction with the usual scheduled diary survey to enable a direct comparison of results using PPM to those from diaries. The diary system used in Canada uses different diaries and different rules than Arbitron so the US experience may not be the same as what will be seen in Canada.
While there has been some noise made about the USA studies, Jim MacLeod of BBM says "In Canada for television we are changing the hardware, not the methodology." What a lot of people don't realize is that in the USA the way local television is measured is rather different. Neilson uses a "set top meter" to record if the television is on or off and the channel. They then use a diary system to figure out who is watching. BBM's Picture Matching system records both the viewing and the demographics from the same households, and PPM will do the same. Again, the methodology is very different in Canada and we can expect different results from the US experience.
The PPM system looks like it will be more expensive to setup, administer and run than diaries. No figures have been released at the time of writing this article. It seems this is in part because television and radio in Canada have yet to discuss what percentage of the costs each are prepared to pick up if ultimately both adopt PPM. Currently television is able to get accurate data by placing "set top boxes" in about 350 households in a market the size of Montreal. This equates to about one thousand people according to BBM. A test of results from PPM and diaries for radio will demonstrate if larger samples are needed to measure both radio and television with the same panel. Television has adapted to the higher costs of electronic measurement and can have PPM on its own. This is not an option for radio.
It is possible that the PPM system could be so expensive that it will only be affordable in the top five markets in Canada. The smaller markets would have to stay with the current diary system, and may end up missing out on even more national revenue as a result. We will keep a watchful eye on this process. |