ROCK IS DEAD, THEY SAID Paul Heine and Anthony Colombo – Billboard 2005 was a tough year for rock radio. Following a string of major-market format flips, questions arose about the format's health. The consumer press piled on with a spate of what's-wrong-with-rock-radio stories. Meanwhile, Jack and Hispanic formats grabbed most of the headlines. Rock was relegated to a sort of second-class radio citizen.
Ironically, programmers had a bumper crop of superstar releases like they hadn't seen in years. The onslaught that began in late 2004 included Foo Fighters, Nine Inch Nails, Green Day, Audioslave, Staind, Disturbed, Mudvayne and others.
For now, the defections have subsided, year-to-year ratings are up, and programmers are playing more new artists than they have in years. Rock (including active, heritage, classic and '70s) had an 8.2 12-plus share in the fall 2005 Arbitron, up from 7.8 in fall 2004, but down from the loftier 8.7 posted in the spring and summer of last year.
Active was flat at 2.3 for most of 2005, while modern declined consistently: 3.5-3.0-3.0-2.9. The slide is at least partially due to the modern format being erased in several large cities since Arbitron's national format shares are expressed as a percentage of total radio listening in continually measured markets.
UPSWING AHEAD?
Rock programmers and label execs are mostly upbeat about the quality of new acts this year. One says, "We're a couple of big records away from rock being back." Stations are responding with significant airplay. Among the new artists to hit top 10 pay dirt at either format this year are 10 Years, Matisyahu, Avenged Sevenfold, Hinder and Evans Blue. Avenged Sevenfold logged three weeks at No. 1 at active; 10 Years hit the pole position at both formats.
For most of 2006 to date, 11 new artists have hunkered down in the Active Rock chart. The format has not embraced that many since 2003. In fact, there are four new artists in the current top 10. That hasn't happened for at least three years.
The situation is similar on the Modern Rock chart: 13 new acts on the chart and two in the top 10—three if you include the new track from Fall Out Boy. However, modern has always embraced more new artists and relied less on library titles than active, so you don't have to go back as far to find a trend similar to today's.
The simple explanation for rock playing more new acts: supply and demand. Both formats are running out of new songs to play from last year's superstar onslaught. "That created opportunity for some of the new bands," says Jim Fox, station manager at Entercom active rock KRXQ (98 Rock) Sacramento, Calif. "As a result, bands like Hinder got a shot they may not have otherwise." The band's "Get Stoned," No. 5 at active, has consistently ranked top five in KRXQ's callout research, at times reaching No. 1 in callout and online testing. Positive callout and top five online research drove the station to put 10 Years into heavy rotation, while Evans Blue has generated a "buzz and some phone reaction," Fox says.
Ron Valeri, PD at co-owned active WAAF Boston, says, "There's plethora of great product, an embarrassment of riches. I have stuff I want to get to and just don't have the room for it right now because there's so much great stuff testing through for us."
With two of the four new bands in active's top 10, you would expect Universal Records national director of rock promotion Dave Downey to be optimistic. "The stars are aligning for new artists," he says. Rock is playing more new bands because "we're seeing more great songs coming through. There's never been a time when new artists were abandoned by the format. We're experiencing success now because we're getting more reactive records." Downey says 10 Years' radio success was built over a period of 45 weeks.
"Rock music is as vital as it's been," Columbia Records senior VP of alternative and rock promotion Ron Cerrito says. "There is an underground." Coheed and Cambria, No. 25 at active with "Welcome Home," "can sell 2,000-3,000 tickets in a market three tours in a row," Cerrito says. "Now, they're out with Avenged Sevenfold and playing 7,000 seaters in a lot of markets. Rock music is very healthy and very much in demand. It's just a matter of rock radio recognizing and supporting those artists and taking them to the next level."
Rock radio's ability to move retail tonnage has been vindicated by System of a Down, Cerrito says. The band's back-to-back thematically linked "Mesmerize" and "Hypnotize" sets have sold a combined 2.7 million units without crossover airplay, according to Nielsen SoundScan. "Every other band selling that kind of tonnage gets played at pop, too," Cerrito says. "That's a source of pride for modern and active rock radio."
Not everyone is playing more new bands. Greater Media active rock WRIF (the Riff) Detroit's response to fewer major releases has been replacing some current positions with recurrents. "We have taken a more conservative approach," WRIF OM Doug Podell says. "But 2006 looks promising musically."
The higher concentration of new acts on the chart is the result of some of the "more mainstream active rock" stations vacating the format, Podell asserts, including WLZR Milwaukee and KSJO San Jose, Calif. The chart is now driven by the "truly active" stations that play more new music, he says.
The Riff's conservatism is a product of its market longevity and staying in sync with its older audience. "Their definition of new music is still Audioslave and Linkin Park," Podell says. "We still sometimes get too far out in front of that and may go a little too far, a little too fast with new releases. Last year caused us to be a little more patient and to take what we have and conserve it a little longer. It paid off for us and the listener."
NO. 1 IN DEVIL WORSHIPPERS
Regarding auditorium and callout music tests, Podell, Fox and other programmers say listeners have shown less passion for current rock during the past three years. One often-cited reason is that by relying exclusively on hard rock, active rock became too musically narrow.
"It was no different than what disco stations did in 1978," Fox says. "They branded themselves with a fad that passed. Some active rock stations only played music that positioned themselves as devil-worshipping, animal-sacrificing, baby-killing stations. When that fad passed, it became difficult for those stations to continue to pull big numbers.
"Eventually, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy," Fox continues. "You become harder, the audience tells you they want you to get even harder. As a programmer, you believe that to be the natural evolution of your radio station when, in fact, all that is happening is your appeal is getting narrower and narrower. You're walking down a hallway and walls are closing in on you."
Only looking for hard, aggressive acts instead of the greatest quality music has hurt active rock, Downey says. Valeri agrees active got too narrow and "overfocused on core," and says he has broadened WAAF musically.
Fox says if KRXQ had not widened its music, "we'd be brushing up on our Spanish right now." Even before the superstar glut, KRXQ began playing pop-alternative bands like 3 Days Grace and Hoobastank and other acts it would have previously shunned. It also brought back '60s and '70s rock. "The audience feedback has been huge," Fox says. "And it fits. I have no problem going from Korn to Skynyrd. It only reinforces the broad and variety position."
Still, the format is overreliant on research and has more palette-expanding work to do, some say.
"Rock radio is very narrow right now. It needs to be broader," says a major-label rock promotion executive speaking under the condition of anonymity. Applauding the heavy airplay given to distinctive-sounding acts such as System of a Down and Avenged Sevenfold, the promo exec says radio hasn't gone far enough to embrace new and different sounds and textures. Other left-of-center, decidedly rock bands such as the Mars Volta and Coheed and Cambria have not received significant airplay, he notes.
Meanwhile, many new acts on the radio all sound the same, he says. "There's no shortage of quality rock music for radio to play," he says. "But all these 10 Years and these Hinders and these things rock radio is playing, nobody cares about. They're programming to their research and not to their audience. And if they think their audience and their research are the same thing, they're sorely mistaken."
The anonymous promo guy says radio plays bands that "seem safe" while avoiding edgy or outside-the-box artists. Yet rock radio's textural variety cup runneth over when it comes to gold titles. Ethereal, synth-driven Pink Floyd and acoustic Led Zeppelin tracks are abundant on the airwaves, but such sonic departures are largely verboten for new, unproven acts.
"I honestly believe that if Led Zeppelin came out today, it would never take off," the promo exec says. "I don't think any [programmer] would listen to it today and go, 'Yeah, that's going to research.' "
Rock programmers face other obstacles. Pop, R&B/hip-hop and country dominate The Billboard 200 sales chart, while demographic trends and Arbitron methodology have not worked in rock's favor. Stations also became cluttered. "We were becoming too full of ourselves and forgot the listener was really there for the music and not necessarily the bits, production, promotions, giveaways, tickets, concerts, promotions, festivals and all of the other things that got in the way of the new-music experience," Podell says.
Others say rock radio has blown opportunities to create events out of high-profile new releases from Disturbed, Korn, Godsmack and other core bands. And that active should have come to the party for double-platinum-certified Fall Out Boy and gold-certified My Chemical Romance.
Despite the challenges, Cerrito notes there are still many stations "playing new music and doing quite well in the ratings," noting that Clear Channel modern rock WXDX Pittsburgh lost Howard Stern "one year ago and they continue to be solid. Houston, Dallas and Salt Lake City have vibrant current rock stations."
Podell says some radio companies knee-jerked in dropping rock. "I still can't find a format that has better 18-44 or 25-54 male numbers than rock. Why you'd abandon that for a format that doesn't have the same impact was beyond a lot of us," he says.
Valeri says WAAF's franchise is "built on an adventurous spirit. It's what people have come to expect from our little cult brand here in Boston." The strategy has made WAAF a solid ratings performer and one of the city's top billers, racking up million-dollar revenue months.
"With a commitment, this kind of success could be carried over in many other parts of America," Valeri contends. "There are enough commonalities that there really is no excuse to completely abandon rock. But the brand has to transcend the music. You need a great morning show. You have to have the breakthrough, splashy promotional effort both on the air and on the street. You've got to have fun. If you're just going to be the 10-in-a-row station, good luck, because now you're competing with my iPod, and I've got my 5,000 favorite songs on there. It's got to be a full-service entertainment product." |