BRIDGE RATINGS AUDIENCE EROSION STUDY 2005 - Q4 UPDATE Where Are My Listeners Going? Bridge Ratings Release In November, 2004, Bridge Ratings & Research released initial results from a multi-year-long Audience Attrition project. The results in that report reflected audience erosion from terrestrial radio due to generally less time spent with AM/FM radio and more time spent with a variety of digital media, including MP3 players (including iPods), Internet radio, satellite radio and Compact Disc.
As part of Bridge Ratings’ on-going studies of radio listening behavior, the company updated the report in March 2005 by releasing the 2004 full-year trending from its Audience Attrition project as well as initial findings from January/February, 2005 and the third quarter of 2005.
This study, which has been tracking such behavior since January, 2004, once again reveals behaviors we have assumed are taking place, but heretofore have not had clinical results to confirm. This on-going project is intended to track radio audience migration over time in order to better understand the ebb and flow of listener preference.
Quarter 4 of 2005 proved to show positive signs that terrestrial radio's year-long response to new audio options is bearing fruit. Listening to AM/FM radio is returning to pre-2004 levels in many cases. Interestingly, terrestrial radio returning to former high-water marks seems to be the result of both the medium's lower commercial load policies plus a growing segment of MP3 users who after some time immersed in their new technology toy, become fatigued with their time spent with the MP3 player and return to terrestrial radio among other sources of audio entertainment.
Other updated findings include:
1. Terrestrial audience erosion to alternative audio entertainment continues to occur in young demographics though at a slower rate than seen previously in 2005.
2. Erosion rate halted for the time being among the 25+ age group.
3. MP3 device usage can consume as much as 80% of a radio user's audio entertainment during initial ownership weeks and months. This number tends to be generally lower among 30+ women and 35+ men.
4. While male and female 12-24 year olds a year ago were equally using digital playback devices (iPod, MP3), Internet Radio and Compact Disc, time spent with MP3 players has increased among males faster than with females as 2005 progresses as time spent with Internet radio has slowed. While satellite radio is still not considered a "high interest" item among this age group near the end of the fourth quarter 2005 we have measured increased interest in this sector than previous studies have shown..
5. Audience erosion in traditional radio is slowing. For example, where a 15% decrease in terrestrial radio use by 12-24 year olds was reported for Q3 2005 vs Q3 2004, by Q4 2005 use had increased by two quarter hours per week per person resulting in only a 4% increase when compared with Q4 2004. Meanwhile, listening to traditional radio by Adults 25-49 has risen from 65 quarter hours a week (Q4 2004) to 67. (See chart 1)
Methodology. Bridge Ratings measures Cume Share and Favoriteness rather than Cume and Average Quarter Hours. AQH is a fabricated mathematical measurement of Cume x an Average Quarter Hour number composed of 'best guesses' by diary keepers. Thus, the AQH number tells a station or its client nothing about the capability of the station to deliver listeners.
Favoriteness is a better measurement of loyalty especially when combined with the Cume number. The Cume number divided by the Favoriteness number yields a conversion number which more accurately measures station loyalty. In Bridge Ratings studies, stations that convert their Cume audience to Favoriteness at the rate of 40% or more are powerful instruments in their communities. This is powerful information for both station and advertisers alike.
For the “Erosion Studies”, as an add-on to our usual questionnaire, Bridge Ratings selected 1000 persons over six national markets to be interviewed on an every other day basis regarding the listener’s use of AM/FM radio and, where applicable, their use of digital media players, Internet Radio, CD’s, or satellite radio. Questionnaires were structured to seek overall daily use of the aforementioned media with short recall requirements.
The results represent the multi-market sample’s behavior and reflects quarter hours of usage per week.
Chart 1
How to read: In the above chart, during quarter 4 of 2004, 25-49 year olds surveyed were spending 65 quarter hours per week with traditional radio (AM/FM) and 43 quarter hours per week with alternative media. During quarter 4, 2005, traditional radio usage among this group increased to 67 quarter hours per week while their use of alternative media also slightly increased slightly to 46 quarter hours.
These figures also indicate that perhaps time spent changes with both media is stablizing after a period of significant movement.
Where Does the Time Come From?
Looking at other media use among 25-49 year olds, daily use of television actually increased throughout 2005, Internet use was down, listening to recorded music was up and reading books and magazines has remained flat.
Chart 2
Time spent with non-media alternatives such as household activities (housework, food preparation, garden care), shopping, sports and socializing has also been affected.
Bottom Line
During the quarter 4 study, Bridge Ratings attempted to learn why these latest findings indicate that time spent with traditional radio is returning to pre-2005 levels. When participants in the study responded they were listening to AM/FM radio more than they were six months ago, the following were results of asking "why":
Chart 3
*Behavior or listening locations changed, i.e. more time in-car/more listening in-office.
An update of data collected during Q1 2006 will be released by Bridge Ratings the first week of April 2006.
Sample size: 6000 persons 12+. Sample error: +/- 1.2% |
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