ANALYST SEES 'MIXED PICTURE' IN SUMMER ARBITRONS Tony Sanders – Billboard Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller sees a “mixed picture” for publicly-traded radio groups in Summer 2005 Arbitron results released Monday (Oct. 17) for New York, L.A. and Chicago. Miller’s report focused on the adults 25-54 “money demo” and did so by evaluating the ratings—rather than evaluating the shares—that some public radio groups command in these three markets.
Even with this different focus, the performance for Univision in Los Angeles comes through, although the resulting numbers are somewhat different and the gains seem much more muted. Miller writes that Univision had the strongest ratings book of the groups he compared, “with revenues up in L.A. and Chicago and ratings flat in N.Y.”
Univision’s 25-54 ratings results for Los Angeles showed a 1.3 rating in Summer 2005, according to the Bear Stearns analysis, up from a 1.1 rating in Spring 2005 and flat compared to Summer 2004. Those ratings figures cover the combined results for Univision’s three FM’s in the market: KXOL, KDAY and KLAX.
In comparison, Clear Channel’s eight station cluster (five FM’s and three AM’s) garnered a 3.3 rating (25-54) in Summer 2005; that number was flat compared to past performance in Spring 2005 and Summer 2004.
The big story for Miller in L.A. was how the Jack format fared on Infinity’s KCBS. Infinity flipped the station in March and the result was that the company “closed the ratings gap significantly, and nearly unseated Clear Channel as the highest rated cluster of stations in the market among persons 25-54,” Miller wrote.
In New York, Miller expressed concern in his report about “weakness at the new Jack format on WCBS (though the format has worked well elsewhere—see L.A.)” Infinity flipped WCBS in June, near the start of the just-completed Summer Arbitron survey.
For that market, Miller said Clear Channel increased its listening lead “to 0.8 ratings points (from 0.7 ratings points in Summer 2004), though the company’s ratings decreased.”
Miller pointed out that “Emmis and Univision bucked the trend somewhat, and managed to post ratings that were flat with a year ago” in New York. “On a sequential basis, only Emmis posted a ratings increase,” he wrote.
In Chicago, Clear Channel and Infinity “swapped positions from the Spring book,” Miller wrote, “with Clear Channel edging out Infinity as the market leader among persons 25-54.” The difference, in Miller’s analysis, was 0.1 ratings points, with Clear Channel at number 1 with a 3.4 rating. Infinity was second with a 3.3 rating and Univision was third with a 1.3 rating. |