ANALYSTS: LOCAL RADIO, TV ON DIFFERENT GROWTH TRACKS Tony Sanders – Billboard It’s better to be in local radio than in local TV right now, according to four Bear Stearns analysts. Their report, titled, “Stark Contrast in Tone in Local Radio and Local TV,” is an analysis of presentations made by various media groups at the brokerage firm’s own annual media conference. As the analysts put it: “Local radio seems to be ‘settling in’ while local TV, especially at the affiliate level, looks comparatively weak.”
Revenue growth for the near term looks better for radio than it does for TV, according to the report: “While most radio companies are providing guidance of +3% to +5%, most local TV operators are suggesting that [first quarter] will be down 3% to 8%.”
In fact, the analysts suggest in their report that many radio groups saw healthy growth in January. The Radio Advertising Bureau reported January revenue was up 3% for the industry. According to the Bear Stearns analysts, this suggests that Clear Channel “was probably down 4% or so, Infinity was probably up 2% or so and the rest of the radio industry was up a solid +5%.”
The report goes on to suggest the same scenario took place in February, although Clear Channel and Infinity “probably saw a deceleration of growth in February relative to January.”
This radio-TV disparity is likely to become more evident as the industries head into the March-to-June timeframe. That’s also when the Less Is More campaign is likely to produce more results. Historically, May is radio’s highest-billing month. And as the analysts point out, “In a typical year, over 36% of the radio industry’s revenue is recognized during these months.”
The report highlights the radio industry’s own efforts to cooperate to create a better, healthier industry. Under the heading “Contrast #4. Radio Companies Cooperate; TV Does Not,” the analysts point to the efforts made not only by LIM, but by the Radio Ad Effectiveness Lab and HD Radio. |