WHY I'M NOT SCARED OF SATELLITE RADIO Mark my words: It's a fad Bill Good – BC Business Radio is about to go through yet another revolution. How many have there been so far? I've almost lost count. It began with television: TV was guaranteed to consign radio to the dustbin of history. The experts agreed that no one would sit around and listen to the radio when they could watch TV. Turns out they were wrong. Nevertheless, I'm still hearing the same argument. This time it's about satellite radio.
Sure, it's radio all right, but it's mostly American and it won't be coming in on your car stereo or the radios you have in your house. And it won't be coming in for free. Satellite radio is pay- for-radio, and that's a big difference.
Now, most of you know I work for CKNW. But not only do I work in radio, my livelihood depends on me being right about this. So let me level with you: Satellite radio is a fad.
Having said that, I'm reminded that many people made the same claim about rock 'n' roll. The fact that it's still around 50 years later humbles me. But hear me out: I'm not saying satellite radio won't last, I'm saying it won't replace radio as you've come, to know it. Admittedly, it will have its supporters and there will be people willing to pay $ 15 or so a month to get it. But whether there will be enough people to make it profitable remains the big question mark.
People listen to radio for a whole host of reasons. In the morning, you listen to "NW or CBC" or CKWX or those guys on the sport shows to get the news, weather, traffic and scores. You listen to Bro Jake on Rock 101 or Larry and Willy on Jack to be entertained. But whatever station you pick, generally speaking, you're listening mostly to local radio.
"Not my kids," you say, "they listen online." Of course they do, but my question to you is: Will your kids, who have grown up thinking everything should be downloaded for free, be willing to fork out a few hundred dollars a year to listen to the radio?
I don't think so. Or at least, I've seen no evidence of it.
So far it's mostly music that's been driving the satellite hype, although shock jock Howard Stern is currently earning enormous sums of money peddling his X-rated show. Still, I don't feel threatened. So far there are only two satellite providers in the U.S. and in its wisdom the CRTC is allowing three to try to make a buck fighting out what many analysts think is a pretty small market.
There's no question technology has changed radio and will force more change. Television created a need for radio to be more local and, in many cases, more focused on music. Similarly, cable television forced change within the TV industry. Suddenly you could have a hundred channels, then several hundred channels. That brought about pay TV, which is now fragmenting audiences.
It's like most other things in our world and marketplace today. Ford, General Motors and Chrysler no longer dominate the automotive world. We have more choices than ever before, and consistent with that, no one company or radio station is as dominant as it was 20 years ago.
Look at the range of choices that exist: Some stations have no newsrooms; others are news only. Some are all talk; others only play heavy metal. Regardless, they all have one thing in common: Their survival depends on giving enough listeners a reason to tune in to them.
Broadcasting is like any other business. It will be around for a long time, but it will continually evolve. It has to. In the very near future you'll be given the choice of paying for your radio broadcasts and getting it commercial free, or sticking with the status quo - no monthly bill but no respite from the commercials (on the majority of the channels, at least). Maybe you'll do a bit of both. We as broadcasters have to keep giving you something you'll want to come back to on a daily basis. In that sense, we have the same challenge as a Toyota or a GM. And no amount of technology will change that. |